{"id":26908,"date":"2025-10-27T16:40:20","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T20:40:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/?post_type=blog&#038;p=26908"},"modified":"2025-10-29T13:01:23","modified_gmt":"2025-10-29T17:01:23","slug":"estimating-census-construction-starts-and-spending","status":"publish","type":"blog","link":"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/blog\/estimating-census-construction-starts-and-spending\/","title":{"rendered":"Estimating Census Construction Starts and Spending\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Written by: Eric Gaus, Dodge Chief Economist<\/p>\n<p><span>With the U.S. Census Bureau unable to release its Construction Spending and Housing Starts data due to the ongoing government shutdown, Dodge<\/span><span> Construction Network\u2019<\/span><span>s<\/span><span> (Dodge)<\/span> <span>Economics team has developed independent estimates of what the Census likely would have reported.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>As a trusted and long-standing resource in t<\/span><span>h<\/span><span>e<\/span><span> industry, Dodge is well positioned to provide these estimates. <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Dodge <\/span><span>supplies<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> some of the inputs <\/span><span>used in the<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Census\u2019 <\/span><span>own Construction Spending calculations<\/span> <span data-contrast=\"auto\">and has collected <\/span><span>detailed <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">construction starts <\/span><span>data <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">for decades<\/span><span>.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Our data collection methodology is nearly identical to Census in the case of single<\/span><span>&#8211;<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">family homes, <\/span><span>while<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> our <\/span><span>broader dataset<\/span> <span>is<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> directly tied to projects <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">we <\/span><span>track<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> from their earliest planning stages until shovels break ground<\/span><span>,<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> and they are <\/span><span>officially <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">labeled a <\/span><span>\u201c<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">construction start<\/span><span>\u201d, a term originally coined by Dodge<\/span> <span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>While our<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> data reporting <\/span><span>categories <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">usually <\/span><span>differ<\/span> <span>from<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Census, <\/span><span>these estim<\/span><span>ates follow Census\u2019 conventions to ensure consistency and clarity during this period without official federal data. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Housing Starts<\/span><\/b><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Dodge estimates that Census privately-owned housing <\/span><span>S<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">tarts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,318,000. This is 0.8 percent (\u00b110.7 percent)* above the Census\u2019 initial August estimate of 1, 307,000 and is 2.9 percent (\u00b19.7 percent)* below the September 2024 rate of 1,357,000. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 916,000; this is 2.9 percent (\u00b18.2 percent)* above the Census\u2019 initial August figure of 890,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 390,000.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-26915\" src=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-1-300x263.png\" alt=\"Chart 1 1\" width=\"667\" height=\"585\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-1-300x263.png 300w, https:\/\/www.construction.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Chart-1-1.png 888w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 667px) 100vw, 667px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Total Construction Spending<\/span><\/b><span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Dodge estimates that Census <\/span><span>C<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">onstruction <\/span><span>S<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">pending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,111.0 billion, 1.3 percent (\u00b10.8 percent)* below the Census\u2019 initial July estimate of $2,139.1 billion. The August figure is 4.3 percent (\u00b11.5 percent) below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">During the first eight months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,431.6 billion, 3.1 percent (\u00b11.0 percent) below the $1,462.4 billion for the same period in 2024. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-26914\" src=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/chart2-1-300x168.png\" alt=\"Chart2 1\" width=\"821\" height=\"460\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/chart2-1-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.construction.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/chart2-1-1024x572.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 821px) 100vw, 821px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Dodge <\/span><span>maintains<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> a digitized database of historical <\/span><span>Construction <\/span><span>S<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">tarts <\/span><span>dating<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> back to 1967<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> and provides forecasts starts, spending, and building stock <\/span><span>across more than<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> 20 construction categories. Our commercial construction starts data <\/span><span>serves as <\/span><span>a<\/span><span> primary<\/span> <span data-contrast=\"auto\">input <\/span><span>for the U.S.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> Census<\/span><span> Bureau\u2019s Construction Put in Place (spending) calculations.<\/span> <span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:278}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>For more monthly insights on construction activity across key se<\/span><span>ctors, explore our <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/construction-news\/\"><span>latest industry reports<\/span><\/a><span>.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:278}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":26910,"template":"","class_list":["post-26908","blog","type-blog","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Estimating Census Construction Starts and Spending\u00a0 | Dodge Construction Network<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.construction.com\/blog\/estimating-census-construction-starts-and-spending\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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